A study conducted by the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, in the US, says Australia will win fewer Olympic gold medals, and fewer medals overall, than it did at either Beijing, Athens or Sydney. The study, however, predicted that host nation Britain can hope for a good medal haul.
The study used the formula developed by Professor Andrew Bernard. The formula was also used to predict the overall medal count at 2000 Sydney Games and 2008 Beijing with 95 per cent accuracy.
The formula uses economic principles such as income per person, population and prior Olympic success on a country level as the indicators rather taking into account the history of the athletes competing in the Games.
The study said that Britain are expected to move up the gold medal tally from fourth to third, with 25 gold medals and will overtake Russia with 21. China is expected to top the medals tally with 48 gold, followed by the US with 35.
But there was bad news for Australia, which came fourth in the gold medal tally in Athens in 2004 and sixth in Beijing. They are expected to win only 12 gold – two fewer than in Beijing, and five fewer than in Athens.
“The host effect is typically an important determinant of total and gold medal counts,” according to the study done by Tuck graduate Emily Williams.
“The cheering crowds may make the difference in the sprint to the finish, provided the inevitable rain doesn’t dampen spirits too much!”